A developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico could strengthen into a low-end Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday, potentially making landfall along the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts.


After a period of relative calm, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) updated its forecast Sunday evening, giving the system a 90% chance of becoming a tropical storm within the next 48 hours.


In response, a tropical storm watch was issued for Southern Texas, stretching from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande River. This means tropical storm-force winds could impact the region by Tuesday evening. The watch extends further south to the Mexican coast, reaching Barra del Tordo.


As of Sunday night, the system's center was located roughly 320 miles south-southeast of the Rio Grande's mouth and about 550 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana. With sustained winds around 50 mph, the system was moving slowly at 5 mph in a north-northwesterly direction.


If this system becomes the sixth-named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, it will be called "Francine." The NHC expects it to reach tropical storm strength by Monday, bringing tropical storm conditions to the northeastern Mexican coast and the southern tip of Texas.


Additionally, hurricane, storm surge, and tropical storm watches are anticipated along the Upper Texas and Louisiana coasts starting Monday.


This system, labeled Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, is one of three that the NHC is monitoring. Another disturbance in the central tropical Atlantic has a 60% chance of developing into a storm within 48 hours, while a third system farther east has a 50% chance of development over the next week.


The NHC's forecast indicates that the storm could reach Category 1 hurricane strength by Wednesday, with winds of up to 80 mph. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected along the coast, with localized totals of up to 12 inches in parts of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana through Thursday, raising concerns about flash flooding.